@Article{GuimberteauCDBABDGKLPRRTTVVZV:2017:MuAnNe,
author = "Guimberteau, Matthieu and Ciais, Philippe and Ducharne, Agnes and
Boisier, Juan Pablo and Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de and Biemans,
Hester and Deurwaerder, Hannes de and Galbraith, David and Kruijt,
Bart and Langerwisch, Fanny and Poveda, German and Rammig, Anja
and Rodriguez, Daniel Andres and Tejada Pinell, Graciela and
Thonicke, Kirsten and Von Randow, Celso and Von Randow, Rita de
C{\'a}ssia Silva and Zhang, Ke and Verbeeck, Hans",
affiliation = "{Universit{\'e} Paris-Saclay} and {Universit{\'e} Paris-Saclay}
and {Sorbonne Universit{\'e}s} and {Universidad de Chile} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Wageningen
University \& Research} and {Ghent University} and {University of
Leeds} and {Wageningen University \& Research} and {Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)} and {Universidad
Nacional de Colombia} and {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Hohai University} and
{Ghent University}",
title = "Impacts of future deforestation and climate change on the
hydrology of the Amazon Basin: a multi-model analysis with a new
set of land-cover change scenarios",
journal = "Hydrology and Earth System Sciences",
year = "2017",
volume = "21",
number = "3",
pages = "1455--1475",
month = "Mar.",
abstract = "Deforestation in Amazon is expected to decrease evapotranspiration
(ET) and to increase soil moisture and river discharge under
prevailing energy-limited conditions. The magnitude and sign of
the response of ET to deforestation depend both on the magnitude
and regional patterns of land-cover change (LCC), as well as on
climate change and CO2 levels. On the one hand, elevated CO2
decreases leaf-scale transpiration, but this effect could be
offset by increased foliar area density. Using three regional LCC
scenarios specifically established for the Brazilian and Boli-vian
Amazon, we investigate the impacts of climate change and
deforestation on the surface hydrology of the Amazon Basin for
this century, taking 2009 as a reference. For each LCC scenario,
three land surface models (LSMs), LPJmLDGVM, INLAND-DGVM and
ORCHIDEE, are forced by bias-corrected climate simulated by three
general circulation models (GCMs) of the IPCC 4th Assessment
Report (AR4). On average, over the Amazon Basin with no
deforestation, the GCM results indicate a temperature increase of
3.3 degrees C by 2100 which drives up the evaporative demand,
whereby precipitation increases by 8.5%, with a large uncertainty
across GCMs. In the case of no deforestation, we found that ET and
runoff increase by 5.0 and 14 %, respectively. However, in
south-east Amazonia, precipitation decreases by 10% at the end of
the dry season and the three LSMs produce a 6% decrease of ET,
which is less than precipitation, so that runoff decreases by 22%.
For instance, the minimum river discharge of the Rio Tapajos is
reduced by 31% in 2100. To study the additional effect of
deforestation, we prescribed to the LSMs three contrasted LCC
scenarios, with a forest decline going from 7 to 34% over this
century. All three scenarios partly offset the climate-induced
increase of ET, and runoff increases over the entire Amazon. In
the southeast, however, deforestation amplifies the decrease of ET
at the end of dry season, leading to a large increase of runoff
(up to + 27% in the extreme deforestation case), offsetting the
negative effect of climate change, thus balancing the decrease of
low flows in the Rio Tapajos. These projections are associated
with large uncertainties, which we attribute separately to the
differences in LSMs, GCMs and to the uncertain range of
deforestation. At the subcatchment scale, the uncertainty range on
ET changes is shown to first depend on GCMs, while the uncertainty
of runoff projections is predominantly induced by LSM structural
differences. By contrast, we found that the uncertainty in both ET
and runoff changes attributable to uncertain future deforestation
is low.",
doi = "10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017",
issn = "1027-5606",
label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR",
language = "en",
targetfile = "guimber_impacts.pdf",
url = "http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/1455/2017/hess-21-1455-2017.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}